Outline of a lecture given by Dr. Rupert Read on February 6, 2019 at the University of East Anglia.
Dr. Rupert Read is a professor of philosophy at the University of East Anglia (UEA), a highly ranked research University in the U.K. He works closely with environmental scientists at UEA, chairs the Green House think-tank, and appears periodically on BBC programs. About two weeks ago he gave a lecture at UEA that can be seen on youtube, and I've included a detailed outline here that may be useful whether or not you care to sit through the lecture. (A PDF of the outline is also attached.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnonKverhOg&feature=youtu.be
The opening words of the lecture are pretty interesting so I'll reproduce them exactly:
"There is no way to sugar-coat this. This is not a drill. This is not an academic exercise. This is about whether we - and especially anyone younger than about 30 or 40 in this room - has a future."
Another quote:
"On the Paris trajectory we are headed towards 4°C or 5, something like that - and that is not compatible with civilization as we know it."
And:
"REBEL! THE TIME IS NOW FOR NON-VIOLENT DIRECT ACTION." [...] The governments committing us to oblivion - planning for the self-destruction the societies they depend upon - are no longer legitimate.
Not without good reason, Dr. Read advocates that people join the April 15th International Extinction Rebellion which, so far, seems likely to be a large force in Europe but may have some presence in the U.S.
To the lecture.. After an opening summary, the lecture commences:
WON'T INTERNATIONAL ACTION OF GOVERNMENTS SAVE US?
No. A discussion of the Paris Agreement:
The Paris agreement aims for an unsafe degree of warming.
The pledges are insufficient to achieve even that.
The pledges are not even being met.
Business interests prevail over climate.
Infrastructure and economic development plans contradict the climate pledges.
And the IPCC summaries of science are themselves unrealistically optimistic (e.g. they ignore methane from melting permafrost and the sea bed).
"On the Paris trajectory we are headed towards 4°C or 5, something like that - and that is not compatible with civilization as we know it."
Worse, the Paris agreement assumes very large amounts of geoengineering. 1. The technology does not exist. 2. It is a reckless, dangerous approach.
Civilization will end this century, and perhaps within the lifetime of current young adults.
Industrial society is finished. It will end.
THREE REALISTIC POSSIBILITIES FOR THE FORM THAT THE END OF industrial-growth SOCIETY WILL TAKE:
SOCIETY WILL COLLAPSE UTTERLY
Crop failures are already alarmingly high.
Objectively the most likely output.
OR IT (I.E. WE) WILL MANAGE TO SEED A FUTURE SUCCESSOR SOCIETY TO IT, AS THIS SOCIETY COLLAPSES
We can no longer pretend that trying to mitigate climate change will work.
Seeding a new society is necessary - thinking about what that will look like.
Example: trying to create long-term self-preserving seed banks for possible survivors.
OR THIS SOCIETY WILL SOMEHOW MANAGE TO TRANSFORM ITSELF (OURSELVES) RADICALLY AND RAPIDLY, IN AN UNPRECEDENTED MANNER, IN TIME TO AVERT COLLAPSE.
We should aim for #3, but hedge with #2.
WHAT IS TO BE DONE?
WAKE UP! FREAK OUT.
And pass it on.
This is not an easy, one-time thing because it is easy to freak out and then forget how serious this really is.
WORK TO TRANSFORM THIS SOCIETY, INCLUDING THROUGH TRANSFORMATIVE ADAPTATION.
Mitigation is not enough.
Even if we do the best we can, we are already committed to dangerous levels of climate change.
Even if all emissions stop today, the climate will continue to get considerable worse for years to come.
Adaptation is necessary but it can not be conventional reforms of the sort we think of (e.g., building higher dykes and sea-walls).
Why?
First because that itself is productive of greenhouse gases. We must think of adaptations that are themselves also mitigations.
Second, we must be "fleet footed" -- we need to create a society that is ready for continual change, in difficult situations, for a long time to come. We are in the early stages of a very long emergency.
Adaptations must be transformative of the whole society.
ACCEPT THAT THIS EFFORT TO TRANSFORM SOCIETY MAY WELL FAIL. THEREFORE WE also NEED DEEP ADAPTATION.
The situation is grim and we confront massive forces of ignorance and vested interests.
"Deep adaptation" means adaptation that accepts, at least hypothetically, that collapse is probably, highly probable, or inevitable.
Example: Some people think nuclear power is a great mitigation of climate change. But if collapse is accepted as likely, then nuclear power is a disaster upon a disaster -- collapse will proliferate massive nuclear failure events.
FEEL YOUR ANGER, FEEL YOUR GRIEF.
"Now is the time for authenticity. Now is the time for the truth. Now is the time for using our feelings and not just pretending some kind of rational policy wonk fantasy is going to solve this because its not."
Don't get stuck in those feelings but...
REBEL! THE TIME IS NOW FOR MASS NON-VIOLENT DIRECT ACTION.
Continue to lobby, have good consumer habits, write to your legislators, and so on... but...
Those won't be enough. Absolute change is needed rapidly and for a long time. This is the best way.
The governments committing us to oblivion - planning for the self-destruction the societies they depend upon - are no longer legitimate.
How can a government be legitimate which is in a sort of mass criminal conspiracy to destroy not only even more non-human life on earth -- we've destroyed half the non-human life on earth in [Dr. Read's] lifetime which is so incredible it almost "doesn't compute" -- there is that and the fact we are now putting ourselves on the endangered species list.
How can such governments expect us to go along with their laws anymore? It is high time for us to say "no", to be freed-up from our assumptions of political business as usual by the awesome horror of the situation that we now find ourselves in.
Into this space, Extinction Rebellion has stepped.
6,000 people participated in blocking bridges in London, recently. This level of civil disobedience is unprecedented in British history.
On another day they blocked the entrance to Parliament. People begin to realize "If there are enough with us, the police can't really deal with us."
The demands of Extinction Rebellion
That the Government must tell the truth about how deadly our situation is, it must reverse all policies not in alignment with that position and must work alongside the media to communicate the urgency for change including what individuals, communities and businesses need to do.
The Government must enact legally-binding policies to reduce carbon emissions in the UK to net zero by 2025 and take further action to remove the excess of atmospheric greenhouse gases. It must cooperate internationally so that the global economy runs on no more than half a planet's worth of resources per year.
By necessity these demands require initiatives and mobilisation of similar size and scope to those enacted in times of war. We do not however, trust our Government to make the bold, swift and long-term changes necessary to achieve this and we do not intend to hand further power to our politicians. Instead we demand a Citizens' Assembly to oversee the changes, as we rise from the wreckage, creating a democracy fit for purpose.
Another example of radical action is the School Strike for Climate movement started by Greta Thunberg who asked "Why should I go to school if society is going to fall apart by the time I'm middle aged and nobody is doing anything about it?"
WE NEED TO TALK.
It's not enough to watch a lecture and then go home and stew about it. You feel don't want to make people uncomfortable. You don't want to sound like a freak.
Well, you're not a freak. This is real.
[Dr. Read]'s experience: intimidated for years by the voices saying "you must remain optimistic", "you must not put people off" that finally talking about it was liberating.
Worries: People are going to be demoralized. People are going to be angry with you.
But, in practice, often the reaction is "finally we can be honest about this".
A quote:
"THERE IS AN ABYSS OPENING UP BEFORE US. IT CHALLENGES EVERYTHING WE THOUGHT WE KNEW ABOUT OUR CULTURE AND NATURE. WE NEED TO LOOK INTO IT AND CONCENTRATE ON WHAT WE CAN SEE." -- Paul Kingsnorth, Confessions of a Recovering Environmentalist.
STOP. PAUSE.
Take stock. Don't try to wake up all at once. Build up to it.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
The real challenge is not only political or technical but psychological or even spiritual - about who we are and bringing ourselves together to face this reality courageously.
This is a terrible horrendous time to be alive but it is also an exciting, wonderful time to be a live.
Our ecological perception and our awakening, and uprising are all aspects of one thing.
April 15th is International Extinction Rebellion Day.
(If you are in the UK, head to London that day.)